Last year, I decided to purchase a certain domain. Unfortunately, I missed registering it by one day. Since then, I have kept track of it. The purchaser never actually deployed it and did not renew it prior to the anniversary date.
Now the fun begins: Eleven days after it expired, the registrar changed the status to REGISTRAR-HOLD. 26 days later, the status changed to REDEMPTIONPERIOD.
The wait continues. I have no idea when the next step will occur but according to this discussion, it could be another 34 days.